|
|
|
| | Author: MasterBets
| NFL Handicapping Review - Week 3
We were on fire in Week 3 of the NFL season with a spectacular sequence of results: 8 Picks - 6 Wins - 1 Push - 1 Loss. Our philosophy for betting the NFL is very simple: have your own ideas regarding which teams are strong and which are weak. Then, create your own lines for upcoming games before you look at the Vegas lines. When you find a discrepancy, attack! A caveat here - make sure that your opinions are grounded in objective facts and not personal preferences. We also hate certain teams, and have a weakness for the teams we loved when we were kids, but if you want to make money instead of giving it away you have to shelve those fanatical tendencies. They blind the truth, so sometimes we are now in a position to bet the Cowboys and win big when they cover, as they did last night.
I gave you a glimpse into our power ratings last week when I wrote the following:
"Teams to watch out for in future weeks include the Redskins (overrated); the Jaguars (still underrated); the Colts (very impressive this week); the Buccaneers (very weak); the Saints (overrated - their win at home to the 49ers was a poor effort); and the 49ers (very weak)."
And basically we followed those very lines to make our clients a lot of money in Week 3. We bet against the Redskins. We bet the Jaguars to upset the Titans. We bet the Colts to crush the Packers. We bet against the 49ers who were demolished in Seattle. We did not bet against the Bucs because they faced equally weak opponents in the Raiders, although Tampa Bay played so badly that they are clearly even worse than Oakland. We also did not bet against the Saints for the same reason - they played an overrated opponent in the Rams.
Our win/loss NFL record so far this season stands at 26 wins and only 13 losses. That's a 67% strike rate, so we must be doing something right. I think that the key is to stay away from the coin-flip games. There are a number of games each week that are so tempting to bet on because they look exciting and interesting to breakdown. Those are the game you watch out of a love for football, but don't bet on them for the same reason. They can be very tough to win.
Heading into Week 4 and beyond there are certain teams who need to be looked at in a different light: the Dolphins are shockingly inept moving forward and are much worse than we thought. The Chiefs are obviously overrated, but everyone is now catching on to this. The Giants are not that bad. The Cardinals, even though they aren't winning straight up are winning against the spread, and are not that bad. The Browns are bad, and we still have no idea how they managed to beat the Ravens on opening day when I bet the house (payment, at least) on Baltimore. If they played that game 10 times the Browns might win 2 of them, and I'm being generous because they already won the only one that counts.
Remember to keep your feelings out of it and you will win money on the NFL. The easiest way, however, is to let us do all the work for you and then profit from the fruits of our labor!
| Related Articles:
| | Sports Betting - NFL Handicapping Review - Week 7 | | | Sports Betting - NFL Week 6 Recap And Handicapping Analysis - October 18 | | | MBA Picks - NFL Week 5 Recap And Handicapping Analysis - October 13 | | | NFL Picks - NFL Handicapping Review - Week 4 | | | Sports Picks - Week 2 NFL Picks Review | | | Sports Betting - Week 1 NFL Picks Review | | | Sports Picks - NFL Handicapping Review - Week 4 Preseason | | | NFL Picks - NFL Handicapping Review - Week 3 Preseason | | | |
|
|
| | | |
| | | |
| Last Updated
Tuesday, April 22, 2008 | | |
|
