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| | Author: MasterBets
| The Concept Of Value Betting
The most important rule in sports betting could easily be to find value. A value line is worthless if the team doesn't have a substantial chance of winning that bet, but it wouldn't be a value bet in the first place if that was the case. Value betting in sports is essential to financial success. The only problem is having enough discipline to wait for value odds, and protecting your bankroll in the interim.
We're sports bettors ourselves and not just sports handicappers, so we understand the need for action. We know that you're unlikely to watch a day of baseball games without at least some small action on a game. So go ahead, bet consistently, but make sure you never risk more than 1% of your bankroll on any one bet, and make sure that you have enough cash for that big value bet, when it does come around.
Some would say that any winning bet is value. They may have a point and if you can constantly pick winners, albeit probably at short prices, you will of course make money. However, this approach is unrealistic, you will lose at some point or have a losing streak and your good work will most likely be undone. Look at the bet payout as a product - you always want to pay as little as possible (in the form of bet stake) for that product. You are looking at the best value for your money.
As a bettor you will need to decide if you want to bet at the odds turned out by the bookmaker. You need to ask yourself if the odds being presented are better than the 'true odds' - if so, then they represent value. Your opinion of course needs to be correct. That's where we come in - our results demonstrate that we are correct in enough instances for you to show a significant overall profit.
There is a simple formula for assessing value as follows:
Estimate (true odds) expressed as a percentage X the available odds (in decimal form) = must be greater than 100.
Use the following example: Team A faces Team B in an MLB game. On the moneyline Team A is a big underdog, listed at +300 or 3/1. We estimate that the true odds of Team A winning this game, however, is +200 or 2/1. Team A's true chances of winning this game expressed as a percentage is 33(%) multiplied by the available odds (3/1) in decimal format (4.0). This comes to a total of 132 (33%x4) which is greater than a hundred and therefore represents value. To a degree you can work out what your stake should be based on how much over '100' the value figure is.
Remember, however, that there is big difference to backing a 2/1 true odds shot at 3/1 and a 50/1 true odds shot at 80/1. The 'value' figures here will be similar, yet the chances will not. You need to use common sense when evaluating your stake.
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| Last Updated
Tuesday, April 22, 2008 | | |
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