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| | Author: MasterBets
| SWEET SIXTEEN BETTING ANALYSIS
Sixteen teams are still in the hunt to win the NCAA Tournament, and this preview looks at their chances as well as assessing the betting value currently on offer.
Most pundits would agree that on form alone two schools stand out: Illinois and UNC. The latter are now favored to win, even though they are ranked #2 in the country going into the tourney. North Carolina at +215 offers very little value in our opinion. Next in the market we have Illinois at +315 and they are an excellent price. Consider the fact that they have been defeated only once all year, have the back court to outplay the Tar Heels, and that the ACC is always overvalued for the tournament. We would recommend betting Illinois at this price.
Does any other team have a realistic chance of winning it all? Next in the betting we find Duke at +840. That's a sucker bet. Duke will struggle to reach the Final Four, and there is no way they can beat a team like Illinois. There has been a lot of smart money on Louisville at +1150 and they are now fourth on the board. This team has been very impressive in the tournament, facing tough opposition in both rounds. They have another monster game against Washington, but if they can get past the Huskies they should be able to go all the way to the Final Four, from which point anything can potentially happen. The reality is that this team is still outclassed by the top two.
For the rest of the contenders it is wishful thinking to bet on them to win it all, but with futures markets it is always easy enough to arbitrage bets if the odds tumble down - in order for that to happen an underdog need only advance to the Final Four. Teams that have a shot to go that far are Utah +6600 and Texas Tech +5000. True they are unlikely to trouble the big boys in the Final Four, but if they get that far their odds will be closer to +2000 and you could lock in a decent profit.
Currently the real value play is to bet Illinois to win it all at +315. Just sit on that bet until the Final, at which point you could easily bet on their opponent (likely to be UNC) and net a good profit whatever the final result.
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| Last Updated
Tuesday, April 22, 2008 | | |
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