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| | Author: MasterBets
| NFL Handicapping Review - Week 6
We usually begin this column with a self-congratulatory recap of our stellar NFL Picks record, and with 66% overall winners (up to this week) it is easy to do. But Week 6 was a swift and expensive kick in the teeth for our NFL handicapping staff, and we're still working out a way to pay for those dental bills. Our winning percentage on the season dropped beneath 60% to 59%, which is inexcusable, and we will do better this coming week, but what went wrong? Learning from mistakes is key in sports betting, and re-eavluating faulty analysis has to be done as well.
Let's start off with the hard-luck stories. Luck plays a part in a lot of NFL picks, and all the luck that was around on Sunday and Monday went against us. The following picks were solid, but lost due to an unfortunate set of circumstances, which happens from time to time, and always seems to occur in a cluster:
Bucs @ Rams: Bucs +6.5 was a tough loss to take. The Bucs played well enough to cover, but 4 turnovers, each more heartbreaking than the next cost us the cover by 0.5 point. The 93 yard fumble return for a TD which changed the score from 21-14 Bucs to 21-14 Rams was upsetting, as was the fumble on the Rams 15 with less than a minute to go. Anyone who watched this game would agree that the Buccaneers +6.5 represented the correct value bet and we'd take it again if we had to.
Other tough losses were the Cowboys -3 at home to the Steelers and the Under 38 total points in the same game. The Cowboys led 20-17 and needed to make one more first down conversion to end the game with 2 minutes to go and the Steelers out of timeouts. Even if they failed to convert the 3rd down the Cowboys would have punted from midfield and pinned the Steelers at their own 20 (at worst) with no time outs left. Instead Vinny Testaverde thought it would be smarter to drop the ball from the snap and hand it to the Steelers who ran it back to the Cowboys 14. From there they scored to win the game and send it Over.
Jets -10 against the 49ers should have won, and we'd take this pick again. The Jets failed to convert two 2-pt conversions, and converting just one of them would have at least ensured a push. The Jets also frittered away the entire 1st half against an awful road team. if they'd kicked both their extra points they would have won by 10. Very frustrating. The Bills / Dolphins game also went Over by a FG in a game where it was shocking to see both offenses score TDs.
Okay, enough whining about bad luck. There were also two games that we got wrong, and were way off the mark. The Texans / Titans game never looked like going Over, mainly because neither team could hold onto the ball. The Titans are a tough team to read right now, and we're advising our cappers and you to ignore them until they become more consistent. The Texans are better than we thought, and could well be value ATS in future weeks. We also picked the Lions to cover at home against the Packers, and that was an ugly loss for us. The Packers are a total enigma as far as we are concerned, and due to their inconsistency they should be left alone. Don't bet them, and don't bet against them. They play another struggling team this week in the Cowboys, but which Packers team will show up? Your guess in this case is as good as ours.
Now for the good news, such as it was. We did pick the Over for the Patriots / Seahawks game, and that was our joint TOP PICK for the week. The Patriots are not invulnerable on defense, which they showed in earlier weeks against average teams, and the Seahawks' defense still has issues. Both teams have excellent offenses. We picked the Eagles to beat the Panthers, and they did this convincingly. The Panthers are crippled with injuries, more so than any other NFL team, but the Eagles have now won all their games by double-digit margins! We picked the Vikings to beat the Saints, but we also laughably thought the game would go Under for total points, so that was a wash at best.
So, what did we learn? Leave the Packers and Titans alone. They don't understand themselves. The Eagles are in a class of their own in the NFC. The Vikings are capable of scoring and conceding in huge quantities, but we're not convinced that they can hang with the best in this league. The Seahawks are still a second-tier team with a third-tier defense that is suspect. The bounce of the ball can be very cruel and costly. We also continually underestimate the Steelers, and then promise never to do so again. Perhaps this week we finally learned our lesson...
As always good luck with your plays, and check back next week for more honest evaluations and analysis!
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| Last Updated
Tuesday, April 22, 2008 | | |
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