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| | Author: MasterBets
| NFL Handicapping Review - Week 5
Our NFL Picks for Week 5 produced 70% winners, as 7 of 10 picks won. Our overall record (combining preseason NFL picks with plays in the first 5 weeks of the regular season) is now 38 wins - 20 losses (65.5% winners), which is an incredible achievement for a documented sports handicapping service.
Nevertheless, all three losses were disappointing, and much can be learned from each of them. Our TOP PICK for the week lost when the Jaguars were crushed by the Chargers on the road. The Seahawks seemed certain of a big win, but amazingly they frittered away a 17 point lead late in the 4th quarter and ended up losing the game in OT. Our Monday Night Football pick lost when the Packers were trounced by the Titans. So, what's the analysis of these tragic events?
First off the Chargers need to be upgraded, at least at home. Their run defense is one of the best in the league, which complements their rushing game, which has been excellent (usually in complete isolation) for a few seasons. Brees is also playing well, but this tends to come and go with Brees. Still, they are underrated. The Jaguars are an interesting team. They won 3 hard games to start the season, and were not disgraced in their loss to the Colts. But this was a bad loss, especially as their vaunted D was shredded. The jury is out with this team, but they may have to be downgraded to one of the many average teams in the league this year.
Second, the Seahawks are still a very good football team, but they squandered a huge game and will need to bounce back quickly. Whether they can with a tough schedule remains to be seen. Finally, the Packers are awful this year, although how this happened so quickly is inexplicable (Mike McKenzie meant this much to them??). They have played poor football for 4 consecutive weeks, and cannot be followed now.
There were 7 winning picks that confirmed our analysis from previous weeks, and helped our Premium Clients to even more profits. The Giants crushed the Cowboys, which was no surprise to us. The Giants are very underrated, although this isn't going to last for much longer, and both the Redskins and Cowboys are very weak in their division. The Redskins were easy money for us as well, as we bet the Ravens and the Under in their Sunday Night game.
The Redskins play solid defense, but their offensive line is awful (Brunell is pioneering the 50 step drop these days, running away as fast as he can once the ball is snapped to avoid the sack). The line has to be good before the running back can be any good - it's a simple lesson that Portis is learning the hard way. It also means that they can't pass the ball, which generally makes it tough to win games.
Other winning picks included the Colts in a rout over the Raiders (this was easy money); the Vikings at the Texans (the Vikings are back to their sloppy ways of scoring a lot of points and conceding a lot of points); and the Panthers covering at the Broncos. The Broncos might only be 1 game away from a perfect start, but they are overvalued from a betting perspective.
We also thought that the Falcons were beatable by the Lions and didn't like the Saints at all at home to the Buccaneers. The Saints are posers of the highest order. The Jets and to a lesser extent the Giants remain "sleeper" teams that offer betting value, especially when they play high-profile opponents (the Patriots and Eagles come to mind here.)
As always good luck with your plays, and check back next week for more honest evaluations and analysis!
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| Last Updated
Tuesday, April 22, 2008 | | |
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