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| | Author: MasterBets
| NFL Handicapping Review - Week 7
Week 7 Results: 11 Picks - 7 Wins - 1 Push - 3 Losses, 70% winners
As one can tell from those results we bounced back impressively following the debacle in Week 6. Our TOP PICK for the week was a big winner, when the Falcons were trounced by the Chiefs in a high-scoring game, and we found a lot of good value underdogs that cashed in for our clients. These included the Lions (+7) at the Giants; the Chargers (+3) at the Panthers; and the Under for the Broncos / Bengals Monday night game.
We have now shown a profit in 5 of the 7 weeks in the NFL, and 4 of those weeks have seen 70% or more picks cash, which is very gratifying. Let's break down some of the performances from Week 7 from a sports betting perspective, and try to see what that will mean looking ahead.
The lesson from week 7 was clear: Don't take road favorites favored by a TD or more. The Eagles (-7) failed to cover at the Browns. The Seahawks (-6.5) were beaten at the Cardinals (we fell into that trap by taking Seattle, more on that later). The Broncos (-7) were beaten at the Bengals. The Rams (-7) were beaten at the Dolphins. These games are traps. Not only are they traps for the road favorites who might go in underprepared thinking they will have it easy, but they're traps for sports bettors as well. Our recommendation is to avoid these games like the plague.
The problem is one of value. You should sense that there is little value in laying so many points on a road team in the NFL. Home field advantage is real and dangerous, and for a road team to win by more than 7 usually takes a big effort. But, there is also no value in taking a bad team just because they are at home, especially when they're playing an elite team. The Bengals were not value to beat the Broncos, but there was a value bet in that game - taking the Under. We made an assumption there, namely that the Bengals would raise their level of play for this game. That meant an improved defensive effort. Factor in that the Broncos came into the game with the best defense in the league and a good road record (in terms of not conceding or scoring that many points), and you had a value bet.
We did fall into one trap, and that was taking the Seahawks to cover at Arizona. Seattle should have been ready to bounce following a bad home loss to the Rams and a tough road loss at New England. Instead they came out flat and stayed that way. Is this an elite team? No. Is it a playoff team? Maybe, but they have to be watched with caution for a week or two. They have an easy home game against the decimated Panthers. That should tell us a lot about this team.
Other teams sliding out of view include the Cowboys (we've been telling you this since the preseason, where we asked the pertinent question: how can a team hope to win any games with Testaverde as their QB?); the Bills (woeful on offense); the Bears (equally toothless going forward); the Raiders (a very bad team that might still be overvalued in the lines).
One more factoid that should help you deal with the so-called "shocks and upsets" in NFL football: expect every team to fall somewhere between 4 wins at the lowest and 13 wins at the highest. What this means is that every dog has its day, and even an awful team like Miami is going to win 4. The converse is also true - the Patriots are going to lose 3 games this year, and will probably only cover the spread in 9 of their 13 wins. That means there is value in going against this team, as we proved by picking the Jets +6.5 in their road trip to New England. The Jets lost by 6 and all the kudos rightfully went to the Patriots, but we cashed in. Did you?
As always good luck with your future bets, and check back every week for an honest and provocative look at handicapping the NFL!
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| Last Updated
Tuesday, April 22, 2008 | | |
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