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| | Author: MasterBets
| NFL Handicapping Review - Week 3 (Preseason)
Week 3 of the NFL preseason saw nothing but profits for our Premium Members, as we ripped apart the preseason schedule and plundered enormous profits. We went 4 - 0 with our Week 3 Preseason picks, improving our overall NFL Picks record to 9 wins and 2 losses. There is a school of thought that argues against betting the NFL preseason because it is too volatile. Now we know that it is a remedial school whose pupils are ferried there on the short-bus. Research and analysis reap substantial rewards in NFL exhibition games, as we can demonstrate with a Week 3 review:
The first trend you should be aware of is that "steam plays" in the preseason should be treated with little or no respect. If anything, it is probably better to challenge them and bet against the steam, just out of spite. We define a steam play as any move in the line that exceeds 1.5 points. There was a huge steam play in the Monday night game between the Titans, an exceptional ATS preseason team, and the Cowboys, a team with tons of fans. The line moved 3 points in the course of the week in favor of the Cowboys. We bet the Titans at +3.5 (after they had moved from an opening call of +2), and we continued to bet them even when the line closed out at +5. Treat the steam with caution and you won't get burned.
However, we also saw a move in the line for the game earlier in the week between the Steelers and Eagles. The Steelers shortened from 4.5 dogs to close out at +3 dogs, and here we recommended a big bet on the Steelers. Why? Well, the Eagles are not a good preseason team to start with, especially when they are favored at home. We were not betting the Steelers because of the steam - there are going to be times when the money moves in the right direction. The key is to make sure you're not betting BECAUSE of the move. Big distinction there.
The way to win at the preseason is to look at how teams have fared historically, and also how their coaches have fared. Then, factor in current form, and bet with confidence. A team like the Texans are woeful in preseason (and regular season for that matter). So, when they faced the Broncos on the road we were happy to lay 5 points and watch the Broncos cruise to a win in their home-opener (another factor that is important in exhibition football).
Finally, will the Lions ever win a road game again? Possibly, but it wasn't going to happen at Baltimore this week, a good preseason team that figures to be very strong this season in all formats (including the postseason - you heard it here first.) We will have a number of recommended plays this coming week as the preseason winds down. Be sure to sign up for Premium Service so that you can grab your share of the obscene profits we are generating for our clients!
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| Last Updated
Tuesday, April 22, 2008 | | |
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