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| | Author: MasterBets
| NFL Handicapping Review - Week 2 (Preseason)
Week 2 of the NFL preseason saw decent profits for our Premium Members. We went 2 - 1 with our Week 2 Preseason picks, with a 4th pick ending as a push, improving our overall NFL Picks record to 5 wins and 2 losses. We are intent on disproving the widely held notion that one should not bet on preseason games because they are "too unpredictable." If anything, trends and past statistics may be more accurate in determining the outcome of these games than they are in the regular season. Let's explain this concept in more detail:
NFL handicappers know that certain coaches don't perform well in preseason games. They are more interested in trying out fringe members of the squad, or in protecting key players that they cannot afford to lose. This is a legitimate angle to pursue in forecasting NFL preseason games, whereas it is difficult to make a persuasive case for this in the regular season. Every coach is trying equally hard at that point; every team gives 100% effort - and the value of a coach's mentality isn't as important, and certainly is less quantifiable. But, in the preseason it is clear that coaches like Mike Martz and to a lesser extent Mike Holmgren and Dennis Erickson, are not going to have their teams at full power for these games.
The opposite also holds true, and we have found that new coaches often feel that they have something to prove - to themselves, to their new players, and to the opposition (the world, basically) - and demand a lot consequently from their new teams. It is no shock that Lovie Smith, a player's coach in the first place, has the Bears 2-0 in preseason. He's not fooling around, and doesn't want his players to let up. The Bills new head coach also has them playing well, and we were slightly unlucky to end with a push as we picked the Bills +1 over the Titans. The Titans are coached by Jeff Fisher, who always exacts an excellent preseason from his team, so perhaps a push was always on the cards. We felt unlucky because several Vegas sportsbooks, including the influential Stardust, went +1.5 on the Bills, which of course would have cashed for us as the game finished 16-15 with a last-second FG winner for the Titans.
We began Week 2 with an NFL preseason pick that we thought would be an easy winner - the Panthers (-3) at home to the Giants. The Panthers starters ran roughshod over the Giants, who are going to struggle throughout the season with a below average defense. One concern with preseason is what can happen once the reserves come on during the latter stages, but the Panthers were never in any real danger of not covering this line. Carolina could be tough to beat in the preseason, especially as their starters should see more playing time in Weeks 3 and 4. The Giants seem likely to finish up 2-2 ATS, but will be vulnerable in the regular season.
Our next pick ended as a loss when the Vikings conspired to fritter away a huge lead against the Falcons, ultimately losing a game that they once led by 17 points. This can and does happen in the preseason - but we were very surprised by the performance from rookie QB Schaub, who won this game for the Falcons. He came out of nowhere, as the backups had shown no ability first time out against the Ravens. It generally takes something special to cover on the road as a favorite in the preseason, and this was another example of the home dog prevailing. The Bengals were another home dog that covered this week, beating the Patriots with ease. We generally need a good reason to lay 3 points (more is out of the question) on a road favorite in an NFL exhibition game.
We ended the week on a high note, however, as the Chiefs routed the Rams, much as we expected they would. The Rams are nowhere near ready yet, and will use their remaining games to work out the kinks in their game. This could spell betting value for shrewd NFL handicappers. The Chiefs did not have much depth once the starters came out, and against a more polished preseason team they could easily fail to cover as favorites.
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| Last Updated
Tuesday, April 22, 2008 | | |
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