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| | Author: MasterBets
| NFL Handicapping Review - Week 1 (Preseason)
The first week of the NFL preseason is now over - generating a lot of profit for our Premium Members as well as some food for thought when the time comes to handicap upcoming NFL games. We went 3 - 1 with our Week 1 Preseason picks, and the solitary loss was unlucky when the Broncos lost to the Redskins by 3 (the spread was +2.5) - it was unlucky because the Broncos were down by 2 when they went for the 2-point conversion late in the game, and somehow made the play. If they fail to convert then the Redskins win by 2 and we all go home happy. But that is NFL betting and the perils of NFL handicapping in a nutshell.
The winning NFL picks from Week 1 were all comfortable. The Bears (+3.5 dogs) beat the Rams straight up; the Titans (-3) crushed the Browns; and the Bucs (-3) took care of the Bengals by 14. These were three good value bets in our opinion, because in all three cases the coaching match-up, so critical to betting the NFL preseason, heavily favored our selection.
In the first game, the Bears and Lovie Smith were always going to be the hungrier team. The Rams and Martz are typically overvalued in the NFL preseason, because Martz is not one of those coaches who is willing to put players on the line for an exhibition win. By contrast, Jeff Fisher and John Gruden are two coaches who demand more from their players right now. This is reflected in their records in this format. NFL preseason games are determined by depth at key positions and coaching philosophies.
Here were some interesting NFL handicapping trends to take note of from these early games: certain coaches are not prepared to risk injuries to their key players - one thinks of the Edwards' Jets and Mora's Falcons in particular. Both teams lost their star (and only decent) QB in the NFL preseason of 2003, and are not prepared to go through that again. Both the Jets and the Falcons lost their opening exhibition games. Neither team has much depth at QB, and if Pennington and Vick are held back expect these teams to continue to lose.
Certain teams are going to help out with Over / Under bets, both in the preseason and beyond into the NFL regular season. The Cowboys look capable on defense but have little points-scoring ability, while the Chiefs are the exact opposite. Look for Chiefs games to go Over, while the line on future Cowboys games should drop. Oakland and Detroit were both impressive in terms of their depth and the ability to score points once the starters were back on the sidelines.
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| Last Updated
Tuesday, April 22, 2008 | | |
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