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| | Author: MasterBets
| NFL Betting - Your Edge Over The Fans
NFL odds are devised by brilliant NFL handicappers. This is true, but those NFL lines are not necessarily a true handicap. What do we mean by this? Let's say that Dallas are -3 to beat Carolina. This does not literally mean that NFL handicappers believe the Cowboys are 3 points superior to the Panthers. It means that at a line of 3 there will be the most action on either side of the line.
Those are two very different meanings, so let's clarify it because this is crucial to understanding how NFL betting works. The true difference between Dallas and Carolina may only be 1 point, but NFL oddsmakers know that the Cowboys are "America's team". This means that fools on a weekend getaway from Lubbock will mosey into a Vegas sportsbook and throw money down on the Cowboys, and they won't really care about the line. There are limits - you couldn't make Dallas -7 if they should be -1, but at -3 you will still divide the action.
If you look at the futures market for the 2005 NFL season you can see this going on right now with NFL odds. The Cowboys are quoted at 15/1 to win the Superbowl, yet they are really a 25/1 chance at best. They do not have the offense to win a playoff game, and NFL handicappers agree that they are worse now than they were last year, with an unproven running back, an egotistical coach, and a decent but not overpowering D. NFL betting makes them a huge underlay because there are buyers at that price. This is a simple market people, and if there are gamblers willing to take the 15/1 then the price stays at 15/1 or goes even lower.
So when betting the NFL look for those "brand-name" teams and coaches (the Cowboys have both), chances are that the casual sports gambler will feel that they are better than they actually are. Other overrated teams include: the Broncos (currently 18/1 to win the Superbowl), and the Steelers (30/1 to win the Superbowl). Both of these teams will struggle to make the playoffs, so they are definitely overpriced in NFL betting markets right now.
Conversely, teams that fly under the radar in smaller markets, like the Seahawks and the Jaguars are undervalued by the NFL betting market. Taking these teams in the first few weeks of the season to cover may be a very smart betting strategy, as they should outperform the line. Now, NFL handicappers in Vegas who set the lines know this, but their job is to split the action, not to pick the game. Remembering this point is the key to doing well in NFL betting.
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| Last Updated
Tuesday, April 22, 2008 | | |
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