|
|
|
| | Author: MasterBets
| NFL Betting On Preseason Games
Many sports gamblers who participate in NFL betting during the regular season shy away from betting on preseason NFL games. The argument is that wagering on an exhibition game is far riskier because it is so hard to pick NFL preseason games. But, to be perfectly honest, all NFL betting has a substantial element of risk, because of the level of unpredictability in each game. What percentage of your NFL bets were lost by the bounce of the ball? Those true bad beats come along and scupper many an NFL bet, although one would have to argue that over the long run there should be an equal number of lucky breaks that go your way and enable you to cash in
NFL bets that really deserved to lose.
So many sports bets are won for the wrong reasons. One might handicap an NFL game on the basis of several factors that never emerge, and yet still win the football bet. What you need to do is isolate NFL games that have a high probability of playing to form, and then bet those football games. The truth is that you are as likely to find these worthwhile
NFL betting opportunities in a preseason exhibition game featuring two third string QBs as you are in the Superbowl. The difference is that everyone wants to bet the Superbowl, and only a serious sports gambler would spend as much time researching the preseason.
We must advise you not to wager a large percentage of your bankroll on preseason NFL bets. That would make no sense at all, yet ignoring these games altogether from a betting perspective is not the answer either. If you place a few sensible bets on these early NFL games you can build your bankroll for the upcoming season, and cash in on a few handicapping edges that the casual sports gambler might not be aware of.
The first edge in preseason NFL betting is simply that the lines are often softer than in the regular season. The sports books need to entice bettors to gamble on exhibition games, so they need to offer more value. A lot of people who bet on these games are casual gamblers wondering through a hotel sportsbook, so the oddsmakers can ceratinly afford to take it easier when pricing up these NFL lines.
The most obvious edge in preseason NFL betting is in those matchups that occur between a team using a lot of their starters versus a team fielding their backups, rookies, and reserves. There are certain coaches who feel that it is important to win these games, whereas other coaches prefer to use them as training grounds to scope and blood potential talent. The latter would rather not risk injuries and are not that concerned with the final scores. The former feel that all wins are important, and you need to find a collision between the two styles. Coaches like Shanahan (Broncos) and Belichick (Patriots) have excellent records in covering preseason spreads, and betting on them is usually lucrative.
Another edge for exhibition football betting is when teams who have played an extra game face less-seasoned opponents. The extra game makes a difference in terms of who covers the spread, and the team that is playing its second game tends to outperform the team that debuts.
A lot of gamblers who bet these NFL games like to take the Under in early exhibition games because they believe that poor players are unlikely to move the ball and score as efficiently as the missing starters. This is untrue and is a general fallacy in
NFL betting strategies. Incompetent teams can still generate points, usually via turnovers, broken plays, and missed assignments. In fact, during the last 9 preseasons the Over in the first full week of preseason leads the Under by 87-78. Remember too that oddsmakers were not born yesterday. If you spot a trend or an angle as obvious as this, chances are they have already made an adjustment to keep those
football odds in their favor.
The 3rd game of the NFL preseason tends to be taken most seriously of all by coaches, and features the longest playing time for starters. If you are going to bet preseason NFL games, then a team's 3rd game usually gives the fairest reflection of ability. Starters play a lot less minutes in the 1st game and especially in the final game of their preseason.
| Related Articles:
| | Sports Betting - How To Bet On The NFL As An NFL Handicapper | | | Sports Betting - NFL Handicapping Tips - Five Simple Strategies | | | MBA Picks - College Football Betting Preview | | | Sports Betting - NFL Preseason Picks - August 4 | | | MBA Picks - Total Points Markets - Potential Goldmines! | | | NFL Picks - NFL Handicapping Using NFL Trends - A Bad Idea | | | MBA Picks - NFL Betting - Taking Advantage Of Fans | | | Sports Betting - NFL Odds and NFL Spreads - A Basic Tutorial | | | |
|
|
| | | |
| | | |
| Last Updated
Tuesday, April 22, 2008 | | |
|
