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| | Author: MasterBets
| NFL Betting and NFL Handicapping Myths
A lot of sports handicapping services will try to explain to you that they know things about sports betting that you will never be able to know. That's why you should give them thousands of your dollars for their sports picks.
They know "wiseguys", they live in Vegas (as though this somehow makes them more qualified to tell you what team to bet on), they have access to secret information, they know what the lines were when they first came out. They want you to believe that they can beat the line through a method of reverse engineering or backwards odds analysis (more like backwards thinking) to find out what the line initially was. They want you to believe that their supposedly unique insider understanding of Vegas odds somehow qualifies them to take your money.
We at MasterBets would like to be the first to tell you that this is all utter nonsense. It is a complete scam. It is predicated on the belief that the end result of a game is somehow knowable, as though there is a pattern or a logic that can be found. If this were true then there would be no gambling involved. The very nature of a wager depends on a level of unpredictability. A Vegas "wiseguy" does not influence the result of a game, certainly not at the NFL level. Knowing what team some fat clown in an ugly print shirt bet on at Mandalay Bay's sportsbook when the line initially came out is not going to help you either. Who cares what these individuals do? The vast majority of gamblers who live in Vegas hand over their cash to sportsbooks and they lose. When the line moves in one way or the other it is simply a reaction to the amount of money being wagered on either position. It does not reflect any knowledge as to which way the game will ultimately play out.
The collective wisdom of the gambling public is less than the wisdom of the informed bettor. That is the biggest rule of sports betting. That is why we put it in bold-type.
The NFL line is a combination of what oddsmakers think is the dividing line in a game that makes it dead even and the input of the public who alter the line by betting one side more than another. The oddsmakers who work for sportsbooks are sports betting experts. And here is the only legitimate way to beat them:
You have to put in the hours of research and analysis that they do. You have to watch more NFL film than the starting QB. You have to know what the line should be before it is printed in your local paper. That's the key to winning. It is a combination of NFL knowledge, which every serious Fantasy Football player knows in this day and age (with the information available on the internet a fantasy football team owner knows more about injuries and team status than your average Wiseguy), AND knowing a value bet when you see it. Both of these are functions of experience and time. ANYONE can master them over years, but it does take years. Unfortunately, you have a job, a family, and a life. That is why you need MasterBets. We're not smarter than you. We don't know things that you could never know.
We have just put in the work and effort that most people who bet cannot afford to put in, and we understand betting value when we see it. That, in a nutshell, is what makes us more likely to win for you than you on your own.
We derive our own lines for NFL betting. We then see where we disagree with the printed line. We mark those games as possible targets of attack. Then we wait to see where the money goes. You have to be smarter than the gambling public herd in order to survive and thrive betting sports. You have to outwork them and outwit them. When your pick is still an overlay - when you are getting great odds relative to the probability of winning, then and only then do you bet, and you bet big. You don't bet parlays or multiples or teasers. You take single bets and you hope for 61% winners. You settle for 58% winners and you make a good living that grows your bankroll over time.
Your money management is crucial with all forms of sports betting, and NFL betting is no different. Bet one amount on all our normal picks, and do not deviate from this amount. Bet 50% more of your basic stake on all our TOP PICKS. We aim for 62% winners at the TOP PICK level and 60% for all other picks. Let's say we hit at 60% and 58% respectively, which is a fair and conservative estimate based on our previous years. And let's say that you bet $100 on each normal pick and $150 on each TOP PICK. We will release 140 regular picks a season, and 45 TOP PICKS (again only an estimate). You would then have bet a total of $20750 over the season and you would end up with a profit of $2335 on the season ($15390 +$7695 - $20750). Obviously you could adjust the amount of your basic wager, but you should be disciplined. You must bet all the picks, and you must bet them all in the same proportion.
If you're growing your bankroll, whatever the size, by 10% - 15% a season you are going to succeed as a sports bettor. It is the only way. It is the MasterBets way.
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| Last Updated
Tuesday, April 22, 2008 | | |
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