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| | Author: MasterBets
| NFL Betting For Serious Handicappers
A lot of experts will tell you to never take a teaser or parlay when you place your NFL bets. Similarly, a lot of NFL bettors never take money-line action on the NFL, and the number of bets placed on NFL points totals (the Over / Under market) is always dwarfed by the handle for spread or handicap bets. It seems as though a lot of NFL handicappers limit themselves to taking or laying points on a side in the NFL, but if that is the case then they are limiting their options and making life harder on themselves.
Ken White is now the man in Vegas who determines the lines for NFL betting. Trust us when we tell you that as an NFL handicapper Ken and his team of experts are formidable, and beating them is something 95% of sports gamblers will never come close to doing. There are going to be games where the line fits like an army sheet, and you'll scratch your head in amazement at their precision. When faced with an NFL spread that looks this way beforehand there is only one thing to do - and the answer is not to sit it out. You should rush for that 6 point teaser play.
In NFL betting the teaser is much-maligned and misunderstood. It is the first refuge of the idiot, but that doesn't mean all teasers are idiotic bets. First of all, never take more than a 6 point teaser. If those 6 points can't help you it is unlikely that 8 or 9 will make a difference. Remember that everytime you take a teaser you are sacrificing value and giving the sportsbook a bigger edge. They trade those points in exchange for paying you less than the bet is worth, they don't give them to you because they feel sorry for you.
The serious NFL handicapper only plays teasers in select situations, namely when the line is perfect. First of all you need to handicap the game and have an opinion before you see the line. If you are in agreement with the spread, and cannot see a way to beat it, consider the 6 points. Obviously this is best utilized in games where the line is 2.5 or 3, and you want to increase that line to 8.5 or 9 (taking the favorite would be nonsensical here). In cases where the line is less than 2 either side is acceptable for the teaser player. Do not take teaser bets in the NFL that feature more than 2 teams. It isn't worth it in terms of your "pot odds". Trust us.
Instead of always taking or laying points NFL handicappers should consider betting the money-line more regularly. If you like a small dog (+4 or less) a lot you are getting far better value taking that team to win the game straight-up on the money-line. Again, don't react to the line. Have your own line in mind and when it matches up with the actual line take action.
A parlay is hard to justify, unless it is a 2-team parlay, and you only play them sparingly. They are simply too hard to cash in, and your break-even % is higher than it would be taking single bets. But, the lure of a big payday has enticed stronger men than us, and we're no strangers to a 4-team parlay when the bankroll is low and we're steaming. BUT, try to avoid these bets. They were mainly created for suckers, and are very hard to win over the long-term.
There are certain teams that make a lot of appeal purely as total points teams. Last season the Chiefs were built to take games Over (lots of offense, no D) and the Panthers were the opposite in the NFC - identify these teams early on and you can make all the profits you need playing Totals as your main wager. We love Over / Under plays, especially when the game is tough to handicap on the spread. This year teams like the Lions and Rams should go Over a lot (at home) while a team like the Cowboys seems a lock to go Under.
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| Last Updated
Tuesday, April 22, 2008 | | |
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