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| | Author: MasterBets
| Euro 2004 Odds
France look the class act at Euro 2004 and many are recommending that you take the best price 10/3 to successfully defend their title. We disagree.
The French went into the World Cup in 2002 as defending champions and market leaders only to crash out at the group stages after failing to score a single goal.
It does mean there will be no over-confidence or typical Gallic arrogance this time around. And there were legitimate excuses. Zidane's tournament was ruined by injury and Robert Pires never even travelled to the Far East.
The second main charge levelled against the French concerns an ageing defence.
Marcel Desailly hasn't exactly shone on the rare occasions he's played for Chelsea this season while full-backs Bixente Lizarazu and Lilian Thuram have had muted campaigns at Bayern Munich and Juventus respectively. To top it all, Fabien Barthez is always liable to drop a clanger in goal.
France just do not seem value at 10/3 and now there is the announcement that Jacques Santini had agreed to become Tottenham's new coach. Therehave been suggestions that sections in the French Football Federation wanted him removed as coach before these finals even began. That's hardly a vote of confidence.
No country has ever successfully defended the European Championship and although France will be tough to beat there are too many challengers out there for us to back them.
If the tournament goes according to the formbook then we should have a quarter-final line-up that sees Spain, Portugal, England, Italy, Sweden or Denmark, the Czech Republic and Holland emerging as the closest challengers to the French.
Spain and Portugal should emerge from Group A while England will be expected to go through with France from Group B. The Spanish will be on many people's shortlist and, after the blip of having to go through the play-offs to qualify, they have been pretty impressive in friendlies recently with wins over the likes of Germany, Portugal and Denmark.
There's no doubt that on paper they have one of the strongest squads around but perversely that depth of talent means coach Inaki Saez has a number of tough choices to make. Raul is clinging on to his place despite a subdued season at Real Madrid which means the likes of Juan Carlos Valeron and Fernando Torres are likely to miss out on a starting berth. If Raul (38 goals in 72 matches but anonymous again at the weekend against Andorra) fails to find the net early on then that problem could get even more pronounced. And it's not as if Saez hasn't had enough warning - this is a side that managed to create 28 chances in their qualifier in Northern Ireland yet failed to score!
There's also a question mark against the defence with the central pairing of Carlos Marchena and Ivan Helguera vulnerable against pace while Carles Puyol clearly isn't a natural left-back. The protracted La Liga season has counted against them in the past and could do so again and all in all we're happy to leave them out of our calculations.
Portugal are another side that we could easily try and build a case for, but ultimately we just can't see them going all the way. The stat about every host reaching the semi-finals (except co-hosts Belgium in 2000) will be trotted out on plenty of occasions between now and the start of the tournament. But what's not repeated quite so often is that since the format of the tournament changed in 1980 only one host country (France in 1984) has even reached the final.
Since the start of 2003 they've played seven matches against sides involved in this summer's finals (five of them at home) and have failed to win a single one of them. They've twice been beaten by Italy and also lost 3-0 at home to group rivals Spain. There is almost no chance of Portugal beating France, Italy or even the Czech Republic should they face them.
We do expect Pauleta to have a massive tournament in the lone striker role but there is an argument that the Portuguese rely too heavily on the PSG man for their goals.
England, while coached by Sven-Goran Eriksson, have lost just once in 21 competitive games - and that to eventual champions Brazil in the quarter-finals of World Cup 2002.
The first thing in their favour this summer is that there's no way they can play France in the knockout stages until the final. They take on the French in their opening game and if they can avoid defeat in that, it's easy to see Eriksson's side building up a bit of momentum.
If England are able to field their strongest side then they will be a match for the very best. A strike-force of Owen and Wayne Rooney will scare most defences while a midfield of Gerrard, Beckham, Frank Lampard and Paul Scholes also compares favorably with the other top teams in the contest.
Defensively, though, England do not have the strength to progress. Neville, James in goal, and injuries to the central defender Terry leave them looking weak. They will miss Rio Ferdinand. Their defense is the main reason why England will not be able to go all the way.
Italy and Holland are the favourites to top groups C and D respectively and of the pair it's the Italians who make by far the most appeal.
They were hugely defensive four years ago but that strategy was still enough to take them to within seconds of outright glory. A contentious exit from the World Cup in 2002 and a sticky start to their qualifying campaign for these finals when they lost to Wales suggested that they might be a team on the wane. However a switch to a more attacking 4-2-3-1 system has suddenly made them far more dangerous from an attacking point of view while still maintaining much of their defensive solidity.
The 10/1 about a France v Italy final - a repeat of four years ago - looks too good to miss, and a buy of Italy's tournament goals at 7.2 with Cantor Index could also pay dividends.
After the leading six sides in the betting it's 14/1 and upwards about the rest and if there's to be an upset we believe the Czech Republic are the most likely to cause it. The Czechs were the reason that Holland had to qualify via the play-offs and as well as taking four points off the Dutch they are also the only side since the World Cup to have beaten France. We don't like Holland's chances at all, and look to this team to emerge as the contender from Group D.
A 20-match unbeaten run doesn't happen by chance and in Pavel Nedved and Tomas Rosicky they have two potential players of the tournament - but both with a little to prove again after relatively disappointing seasons for Juventus and Borussia Dortmund respectively. In contrast to a side such as Portugal, the Czechs' record against Europe's top teams bears the closest of scrutiny and despite being saddled with the 'dark horse' tag it's arguable they should be much shorter than 14/1.
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| Last Updated
Tuesday, April 22, 2008 | | |
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